TRUMP: "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" — rejects Iran's Pakistan-delivered counter-proposal 48-hour reply window: Iran has until Wednesday 20:00 ET or the bombing resumes Iran demands war reparations, sovereignty over the Strait, sanctions lifted, frozen assets released U.S. blockade now at 61 ships intercepted, 4 disabled since Apr 13 May 7: Iran missiles + drones strike three U.S. destroyers in the Strait May 8: U.S. "self-defense" strikes on Qeshm Island — Trump calls them "a love tap" Brent crude +3% to $104.50 on rejection — over 1B barrels lost since the war began Britain + France host allied defense ministers in Paris on reopening the Strait TRUMP: "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" — rejects Iran's Pakistan-delivered counter-proposal 48-hour reply window: Iran has until Wednesday 20:00 ET or the bombing resumes Iran demands war reparations, sovereignty over the Strait, sanctions lifted, frozen assets released U.S. blockade now at 61 ships intercepted, 4 disabled since Apr 13 May 7: Iran missiles + drones strike three U.S. destroyers in the Strait May 8: U.S. "self-defense" strikes on Qeshm Island — Trump calls them "a love tap" Brent crude +3% to $104.50 on rejection — over 1B barrels lost since the war began Britain + France host allied defense ministers in Paris on reopening the Strait

Markets

BRENT$104.50▲ 45.1% WTI$98.48▲ 40.4% GOLD$2,512▲ 9.8% USD/IRR48,300▲ 17.9% S&P 5004,968▼ 5.1% VIX37.6▲ 42.6% EURUSD1.0584▼ 1.6% TNX4.728%▲ 0.12 GASOLINE$4.18/gal▲ 21.2%

UNCLASSIFIED ◆ OPEN-SOURCE INTEL ◆ 2026-05-11

Iran Reply Window

2 days

until Trump's reply window on Iran's counter-proposal closes

Wednesday · May 13, 2026 · 20:00 ET

Allied defense ministers · Paris

—

Descend for Briefing

UNCLASSIFIED

OPEN-SOURCE INTEL

LAST SYNC — : — : — UTC

Escalation Risk ▲ High

Ceasefire Hold — %

Last Assessment — ago

Day 35 · The Counter-Proposal

Trump Rejects

Iran's counter-proposal lands via Pakistan. Trump answers in caps: "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" Tehran demands war reparations, sovereignty over the Strait, sanctions lifted, frozen assets released. Qeshm Island is still smoking from last week's U.S. strikes. 61 ships intercepted. 1 billion barrels gone. Iran has 48 hours to come back with terms — or the bombing resumes.

MAY 10REJECTION

HR+24 · NOW

MAY 13REPLY WINDOW

Reply window closes — Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 20:00 ET

The Record

69 days · 10 weeks of war

Sentiment Arc

69 Days of Contradictions

Every dot is a statement. Scroll to scrub through time · tap any dot to pin a day.

—Same-day flip-flops

—Days with a statement

—Total statements

Threatening

Contradictory

Deal-making

Boastful

Mar 3, 2026

1 statement

DAY 0 / 69 · Scroll to scrub · tap any dot to pin

Update

Iran’s reply window has closed. Monitoring for the administration’s next move — the bombing threat is now operational.

Breaking Coverage

Fetching latest headlines

"An ultimatum without diplomacy isn't foreign policy — it's a coin flip with the global economy."

— Foreign policy analysts on the U.S. naval blockade of Iran

The Status

Live Operation

REPLY WINDOW — 48 HOURS

Trump rejects Iran's counter-proposal. Reply window: 48 hours.

May 7

Iran fires missiles, drones, and fast boats at three U.S. destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

IRGC

May 8 · 04:11

"A love tap. The ceasefire holds."

POTUS

May 10 · 18:42

"TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! They will be laughing no longer!"

POTUS

A "love tap" on Qeshm Island, a "totally unacceptable" counter-proposal, and a 48-hour fuse — all inside one ceasefire.

DAY 35

of ceasefire

T-2d

to reply window

61 SHIPS

intercepted since Apr 13

Dramatis Personae

The Principals

Five people drove the story to this point. Their positions do not line up. Portraits: Wikimedia Commons · Public domain & CC BY 4.0

POTUS

Donald J. Trump

President of the United States

United States · Decision-maker

Called Iran's Pakistan-delivered counter-proposal "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" within minutes of receiving it. Brushed off last week's Qeshm Island strikes as "a love tap." Threatening to resume full-scale bombing if Iran doesn't come back with terms by May 13.

“They've been playing games with the United States for nearly 50 years. They will be laughing no longer!”

Truth Social · May 10, 2026

Threatening

Supreme Leader

Ali Khamenei

Supreme Leader of Iran

Iran · Final authority

Signed off on the formal counter-proposal Pakistan delivered on May 10: war reparations from the United States, full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, lifting of all sanctions, release of frozen assets. Has not commented on Trump's rejection.

“The Strait belongs to those whose blood was spilled defending it.”

via IRGC statement, May 10

Escalating

VPOTUS

J.D. Vance

Vice President of the United States

United States · Diplomatic lead

Hosting Lebanese and Israeli teams in Washington May 14–15 for the next round of regional talks. Has gone publicly quiet since Trump's rejection — privately reportedly pushing for one more revised offer before any bombing restart.

“A deal anyone can accept tomorrow is worth more than a war anyone can win next year.”

May 9, 2026

Deal-making

SecDef

Pete Hegseth

U.S. Secretary of Defense

United States · Military lead

Ordered the May 8 "self-defense" strikes on Qeshm Island after Iran hit three U.S. destroyers. CENTCOM tally: 61 ships intercepted, 4 disabled. Says target packages for Iran's power plants and bridges are "ready to execute on the President's word."

“If Tehran wants to see what comes after a love tap, we are prepared to show them.”

May 10, 2026

Hawkish

President

Masoud Pezeshkian

President of Iran

Iran · Public face

Authored the May 10 counter-proposal that Pakistan delivered to Washington. Calls Iran's terms "reasonable" and the U.S. rejection "a closed door we did not slam." Quietly preparing a revised offer before the 48-hour window closes.

“We seek an end to the war on every front — Lebanon, the Strait, the sanctions.”

May 10, 2026

Deal-seeking

Benjamin Netanyahu

Prime Minister of Israel

Israel · Third front

Sending a delegation to Washington for the May 14–15 talks with Lebanon. Privately lobbying Trump to keep the bombing threat live — argues Tehran only moves under pressure. Backed the Qeshm Island strikes publicly within an hour.

“A love tap is the language Iran understands. We hope the President speaks louder.”

May 8, 2026

Conditional

Audience Poll

Will Iran Reply Before the Window Closes?

Day 35 of the ceasefire. Iran's counter-proposal — reparations, Strait sovereignty, sanctions lifted, frozen assets released — was rejected on the spot. Trump has given Tehran 48 hours. Does anything come back in time?

Click to cast your vote — choose one:

Yes — Iran sends revised terms

—

◆ Leading

No — Bombing resumes

—

◆ Leading

Stalemate — The limbo continues

—

◆ Leading

LIVE

— votes

Your Call

Call It — How Does This End?

Four binary questions on what happens in the next two weeks. Tap one answer per question. Live results show what everyone else thinks.

Will Iran send revised terms before May 13, 20:00 ET?

—

Will the U.S. resume full-scale bombing of Iran by May 31?

—

Will any oil tanker successfully leave an Iranian port by May 20?

—

Will Brent crude hit $120/bbl by May 31?

—

Your call 0 of 4

Answer all four to see your card.

Personal Impact

Your Gas Bill: Then vs Now

What a 15-gallon fill-up costs today vs. what it could cost if the Strait closes for 14 days.

30 Days Ago

========================

HORMUZ GAS & GO

April 11, 2026

------------------------

Regular Unleaded

Price/gal$3.78

Gallons15.000

------------------------

TOTAL$56.70

========================

Projected

========================

HORMUZ GAS & GO

If strait closes 14 days

------------------------

Regular Unleaded

Price/gal$5.46

Gallons15.000

------------------------

TOTAL$81.90

========================

+$25.20 per fill-up +$1,310 / year

Constitutional Law

Did This Require Congressional Approval?

Walk through the legal framework. Click Yes or No to follow the decision tree.

Question 1 of 3

Did the President obtain Congressional authorization before striking Iran?

Based on the War Powers Resolution of 1973 and Articles I & II of the U.S. Constitution

Take Action

Draft Your Message to Congress

Copy this template and send it to your representative. Customize it if you'd like.

Open Email App

Analysis

A Counter-Proposal, A Rejection, And A 48-Hour Fuse

Editorial Analysis

Strait Watch Desk · May 11, 2026

The Phantom Ceasefire

Day 35 of a ceasefire nobody can define. Trump rejects Iran's counter-proposal in three caps-locked words. The blockade keeps choking; the bombs are off the table — until they aren't.

The ceasefire is, on paper, still in effect. Iran has fired missiles, drones, and fast boats at three U.S. destroyers. The U.S. has put a "love tap" on Qeshm Island. CENTCOM has intercepted 61 ships, disabled four, and turned the Strait of Hormuz into a parking lot. All of this is the same ceasefire.

A ceasefire that survives three destroyer attacks and a counter-proposal rejection is not a ceasefire. It's an inventory of grievances waiting for a match.

Pakistan delivered Iran's terms on Saturday — reparations, sovereignty over the Strait, sanctions lifted, frozen assets back. Trump answered in capital letters before lunch on Sunday. The window he gave Tehran to come back with a less unacceptable counter is now under 48 hours.

The question the site opened with — "a coin flip with the global economy" — has now been flipped a second time. Heads: a revised offer lands by Wednesday and the limbo continues. Tails: the bombing the administration says it can "execute on the President's word" begins. ■

Context

Strait Watch Desk · May 11, 2026

What "Totally Unacceptable" Actually Buys You

Tehran's counter-proposal wasn't a concession — it was an opening bid. Trump's all-caps rejection isn't an answer; it's a price.

Iran asked for four things: war reparations from the United States, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, an end to all sanctions, and the release of seized assets. Read in Washington, that's a maximalist ask designed to be rejected. Read in Tehran, it's the floor of what an end-of-war settlement looks like from the side that took the strikes.

Saying "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" is not the same as saying what would be acceptable.

The administration has not put a counter-counter on the table. The reply window Trump set is a deadline for Iran to move — not a list of what Iran would need to move to. That asymmetry is the entire story of the next two days. Iran's options narrow to: send less, send nothing, or do something the Strait will feel. ■

In His Own Words

Every Statement, In Order — 69 Days

The full chronology below. Scroll horizontally — or jump from any dot in the Sentiment Arc above.

Mar 3

"We won the war."

Mar 7

"We defeated Iran."

Mar 9

"We must attack Iran."

Mar 9

"The war is ending almost completely, and very beautifully."

Mar 11

"You never like to say too early you won. We won. In the first hour it was over."

Mar 12

"We did win, but we haven't won completely yet."

Mar 13

"We won the war."

Mar 14

"Please help us."

Mar 15

"If you don't help us, I will certainly remember it."

Mar 16

"Actually, we don't need any help at all."

Mar 16

"I was just testing to see who's listening to me."

Mar 16

"If NATO doesn't help, they will suffer something very bad."

Mar 17

"We neither need nor want NATO's help."

Mar 17

"I don't need Congressional approval to withdraw from NATO."

Mar 18

"Our allies must cooperate in reopening the Strait of Hormuz."

Mar 19

"US allies need to get a grip — step up and help open the Strait of Hormuz."

Mar 20

"NATO are cowards."

Mar 21

"The Strait of Hormuz must be protected by the countries that use it. We don't use it, we don't need to open it."

Mar 22

"This is the last time. I will give Iran 48 hours. Open the strait."

Mar 22

"Iran is Dead."

Mar 23

"We had very good and productive talks with Iran."

Mar 24

"We're making progress."

Mar 24

"They gave us a present and the present arrived today, and it was a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money."

Mar 25

"They gave us a present and the present arrived today. And it was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money. I'm not going to tell you what that present is, but it was a very significant prize."

Mar 26

"Make a deal, or we'll just keep blowing them away."

Mar 27

"We don't have to be there for NATO."

Mar 29

Claimed talks were progressing.

Mar 30

"Open the Strait of Hormuz immediately, or face devastating consequences."

Mar 31

Claimed a deal was "very close" and that Iran would "do the right thing."

Apr 1

"We'll see what happens very soon."

Apr 2

"The strait will open up naturally."

Apr 3

"Something big is going to happen."

Apr 4

Said Iran must comply "immediately" or face further consequences.

Apr 5

"Open the fuckin' Strait, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in Hell — JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah."

Apr 6

Said Tuesday deadline to make a deal with Iran is final.

Apr 7

"A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want it to happen, but it likely will."

Apr 7

"I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!"

Apr 8

2-week ceasefire officially begins. Pakistan confirmed as mediator.

Apr 12

"We're going to blockade the Strait."

Apr 13

U.S. Navy begins enforcing blockade of Iranian ports. Iran military commander immediately calls it "illegal."

Apr 14

"Talks could be happening over the next two days."

Apr 15

"The war is very close to over."

Apr 15

Iran military commander: blockade is "illegal" — a violation of the ceasefire. Iran threatens Red Sea shipping.

Apr 15

"We've beaten them militarily, totally."

Apr 15

"The stock market is going to boom."

Apr 16

Hegseth: "We're watching you. Locked and loaded for renewed combat."

Apr 16

AP reports "in principle agreement" to extend ceasefire. Senior U.S. official: "has not formally agreed."

Apr 16

Trump says Israeli and Lebanese leaders to hold direct talks for the first time in decades.

Apr 17

Israel–Lebanon 10-day ceasefire begins at 5pm. Celebratory gunfire in Beirut.

Apr 17

"May have been a historic day for Lebanon. Good things are happening!!!"

Apr 17

"The blockade will remain in full force until we reach a peace deal."

Apr 17

Iran FM: Strait of Hormuz "declared completely open" for remaining ceasefire period.

Apr 17

"The Iran deal is close. Very close."

Apr 17

Iran's IRGC opens fire on a French ship and a UK freighter in the Strait. Trump calls it "a total violation of our ceasefire agreement."

Apr 17

"No more Mr. Nice Guy. The United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran."

Apr 17

"It's time for the Iran Killing Machine to end!"

Apr 17

"My representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — they will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations."

Apr 17

"The United States loses nothing. Many ships are headed, right now, to Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska."

Apr 18

Islamabad talks open under Pakistani mediation. U.S. + Iranian teams in the same room for the first time.

Apr 21

"In principle, we have an agreement. The ceasefire continues."

Apr 21

"The blockade stays. The bombing stops. That is the deal."

Apr 24

CENTCOM intercept count crosses 30 vessels. No oil has left an Iranian port in 11 days.

Apr 27

"Brent at 95. America winning the energy war."

May 2

IRGC Navy commander: "heavy assault" on U.S. bases if any tanker is struck.

May 7

Iran fires missiles, drones, and fast boats at three U.S. destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

May 8

U.S. conducts "self-defense" strikes on Iranian facilities near Qeshm Island. Ten Iranian sailors wounded, five missing.

May 8

"A love tap. The ceasefire holds."

May 9

U.S. disables Iran-flagged tankers Sea Star III and Sevda attempting to dock at Iranian ports.

May 9

Drone strike on a ship off Qatar; UAE shoots down two drones. Qatar calls the incidents a "dangerous and unacceptable escalation."

May 10

Pakistan delivers Iran's formal counter-proposal: war reparations, full sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions lifted, frozen assets released.

May 10

"TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!"

May 10

"They've been playing games with the United States for nearly 50 years. They will be laughing no longer!"

May 10

Iranian FM: counter-proposal is "reasonable"; rejection is "a closed door we did not slam."

May 11

Britain + France host allied defense ministers in Paris to plan reopening the Strait.

May 11

Brent +3% to $104.50/bbl. Over 1 billion barrels of crude lost since the war began ten weeks ago.

May 11

"If they don't come back with terms in 48 hours, the bombing resumes."

Compiled by u/PapaTahm

The Stakes

Economy at risk

The Stakes

What's Actually at Risk

This isn't an abstract geopolitical standoff. It's a chokepoint for the global economy — and the consequences would hit home fast.

21%

Of global oil passes through the Strait daily

vs 79% other routes

21M

Barrels per day in transit

of 100M bbl global daily

$2.4T

Annual value at stake

≈ 2.4% of global GDP

21 mi

Width at narrowest point

narrower than English Channel

Market Impact

Brent Crude Under Pressure

Brent is up 45.1% since the crisis began. Each escalation prints another spike — the Apr 7 ceasefire bought a 48-hour dip, the blockade reignited the rally, and Trump's May 10 rejection of Iran's counter-proposal kicked Brent into triple digits.

Scenario Model

What If the Strait Closes?

Drag the slider to model the cascading economic impact of a Hormuz blockade lasting 1 to 30 days.

Days of closure

1days

$98.32

Brent Crude / bbl

$3.57

US Gas / gallon

21M

Barrels Blocked

$8.2B

Global GDP Impact

Geography

The Strait of Hormuz

The 21-mile passage between Iran and Oman that carries 21% of the world's oil — and that the U.S. Navy is now blockading.

U.S. Strike Target

Oil Shipping Lanes

Strait Chokepoint

Step 01

The Persian Gulf

A shallow body of water bordered by Iran to the north and the Arabian Peninsula to the south. Through it flows one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

Step 02

Kharg Island — Iran's Oil Lifeline

This island handled 90% of Iran's crude exports. U.S. strikes destroyed the terminal.

Step 03

The Strait of Hormuz

21 miles wide. 21% of global oil. One chokepoint that can bring the world economy to its knees.

Step 04

The Shipping Lanes

Every amber line is billions of dollars in transit. Iran controls the northern shore.

Real Time

What's in Transit Right Now

Strait of Hormuz — Live Traffic

~243 barrels per second in transit

BLOCKED

Chronology

How We Got Here

A rapid escalation with no visible off-ramp.

Early April 2026

Iran Restricts Strait Traffic

Iran increases military presence and restricts commercial vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global supply chains.

April 2026

U.S. Strikes Kharg Island — No Congressional Authorization

Without Congressional debate or vote, the U.S. strikes Iran's primary oil export terminal — responsible for ~90% of Iran's crude exports. The strike destroys any remaining diplomatic leverage.

April 7, 2026

Trump Announces 2-Week Ceasefire

Hours after threatening "a whole civilization will die tonight," Trump announces a double-sided ceasefire with Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is to reopen under Iranian military coordination. The clock starts at 14 days.

April 12, 2026

Trump Announces Naval Blockade

Day 5 of the ceasefire. Trump announces the United States will blockade Iranian ports — framing it as sanctions enforcement, not an act of belligerency.

April 13, 2026

Blockade Takes Effect

U.S. Navy assets move into position. Iranian commercial shipping is turned back. Iran's military commander immediately calls the blockade "illegal."

April 14, 2026

Trump Hints at Talks

Trump tells the New York Post a second round of U.S.–Iran negotiations "could be happening over the next two days" in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan.

April 21, 2026

Ceasefire Extended "In Principle"

The 14-day ceasefire officially expires. After Islamabad talks, both sides agree to extend it indefinitely. The blockade stays. The bombing stops. The contradiction is now permanent.

May 7–8, 2026

Qeshm Island Strikes

Iran fires missiles, drones, and fast boats at three U.S. destroyers. U.S. retaliates with "self-defense" strikes on Iranian facilities near Qeshm Island. Ten Iranian sailors wounded, five missing. Trump calls it "a love tap."

May 10, 2026 — Now

Trump Rejects the Counter-Proposal

Pakistan delivers Iran's formal counter-proposal: reparations, sovereignty over the Strait, sanctions lifted, frozen assets released. Trump answers in all caps: "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" Iran has 48 hours to come back with terms.

May 13, 2026 — 8:00 PM ET

Reply Window Closes

If Iran's revised offer is not on the table by 20:00 ET, the administration says the bombing threat becomes operational. Whether that's a posture or a plan is the question the clock is counting down to.

The Archive

Historical record

Context

Historical Parallels

This isn't the first time a crisis in the Gulf has threatened global energy. But the stakes and the recklessness are unprecedented.

Record · 1973

1973

The Oil Embargo

Arab nations cut off oil to the West over support for Israel. Gas lines stretched for blocks. A recession followed.

Then

Now

Duration

6 months

Duration

Hours remaining

Oil Impact

+400% ($3→$12)

Oil Impact

+31% so far

Outcome

Recession, gas lines

Outcome

TBD

Record · 1990

1990

The Gulf War

Iraq invaded Kuwait. Coalition forces responded. Oil spiked 130% in weeks as Gulf supply was threatened.

Then

Now

Duration

7 months

Duration

Escalating in days

Oil Impact

+130% ($17→$40)

Oil Impact

$72→$94.82

Outcome

Brief recession

Outcome

Unknown

Record · 2019

2019

Tanker Attacks

Mines and missiles hit tankers in the Gulf of Oman. Oil spiked briefly. Diplomacy prevailed.

Then

Now

Duration

3 months

Duration

Active crisis

Oil Impact

+15% brief spike

Oil Impact

+31% and climbing

Outcome

De-escalation

Outcome

No diplomacy

The Forecast

After the reply window

Forward Outlook

What Happens After May 13?

Three operational scenarios for the reply-window close — ranked by assessed likelihood. None of them end the crisis.

Scenario A

Low Risk

Iran Sends Revised Terms In Time

Tehran drops two of its four demands before the May 13 window closes. Trump claims a "tremendous victory." Blockade narrows; a few tankers leave. Oil settles back into the $90s. The crisis is paused, not solved.

Assessed probability

~18% · Falling

Scenario B

Moderate Risk

Window Closes, Limbo Continues

Iran sends nothing. Trump postpones rather than orders. The blockade tightens; back-channel talks shuttle through Pakistan again. No shots fired, no deal signed, no exports moving. The crisis is frozen in a slow thaw.

Assessed probability

~32% · Falling

Scenario C

Elevated Risk

Collapse — Bombing Resumes

Iran refuses, or sends terms Trump still rejects. The bombing threat goes operational. CENTCOM hits power plants and bridges in Iran. Iran answers in the Red Sea or against blockade assets. Oil surges past $150. Lebanon track freezes again.

Assessed probability

~50% · Rising Fast

Personal Impact

How This Affects You

Select your state to see the estimated gas price impact if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for 14 days.

Chain Reaction

The Domino Effect

If the Strait of Hormuz closes, the consequences cascade within days. Each domino tips the next.

Strait Closes

Iran blocks the 21-mile passage

Oil Spikes Past $150

21% of global supply cut off overnight

Gas Hits $6+/Gallon

American consumers pay the price at the pump

Shipping Costs Explode

Insurance rates spike 3-5x, supply chains seize

Consumer Spending Drops

Household budgets squeezed, retail slows

Recession Risk Spikes

Global GDP takes an estimated $250B hit

What To Watch

Key Moments Ahead

Five scheduled inflection points before Iran's reply window closes on May 13 — and the week of regional decisions that follows. Any one of them could reroute the story.

11 MAY

Markets Price the Rejection · Today

Breaking

Brent jumps 3% to $104.50 in Sunday futures, WTI back near $98.50. The market is pricing the bombing threat as live again. One billion barrels of crude have now been removed from global supply since the war began.

12 MAY

Allied Defense Ministers — Paris · Confirmed

High Impact

Britain and France host allied defense ministers in Paris to plan reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The first serious multilateral session since the blockade began Apr 13. What the room agrees on will shape Iran's last 24 hours of options.

13 MAY

Iran Reply Window Closes · 20:00 ET

Critical

The 72-hour window Trump set after rejecting Iran's counter-proposal ends. Either revised terms are on the table by 20:00 ET, or the administration says the bombing threat goes operational. No third option has been put in writing.

14 MAY

Lebanon–Israel Talks · Washington · Two days

High Impact

Lebanese and Israeli delegations arrive in Washington for intensive May 14–15 talks. If the Iran reply window collapses on Wednesday, this is the regional track that goes with it.

20 MAY

First Tanker Exit Test

Medium Impact

Date by which any major oil tanker — Iranian or otherwise — would need to successfully leave an Iranian port for global markets to price in an off-ramp. CENTCOM has turned back 61 vessels and disabled four since Apr 13.

Updates

Live Feed

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Real-time coverage from global news outlets, updated every 10 minutes.

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